Tomsk79

So Labour and the Lib Dems were fully justified in switching their leafletting efforts to the general election: Other names: Description (if any): Number of first preference votes given for each candidate: Percentage (%) of first preference votes: ANSTEE Sean Brian The Conservative Party Candidate 128,752 22.72% ASLAM Mohammad Independent 5,815 1.03% BROPHY Jane Elisabeth Liberal Democrats 34,334 6.06% BURNHAM Andy Labour and Co-operative Party 359,352 63.41% FARMER Marcus Jonathan Independent 3,360 0.59% MORRIS Stephen English Democrats - "Putting England First!" 11,115 1.96% ODZE Shneur Zalman UK Independence Party (UKIP) 10,583 1.87% PATTERSON Will The Green Party 13,424 2.37% Total number of first preference votes: 566,735 Big Andy shows

So who did I vote for on this historic day? When the campaign kicked off I was sorely tempted to choose based purely on the candidates' views on Brexit, but now it seems a less urgent concern when there's a better opportunity to make that point next month. And if you discount Brexit, there's only one game in town. Burnham is streets ahead of the other candidates both in his experience and his manifesto , so first choice to him. Of course I wasn't going to let my first ever supplementary vote election pass without nominating a second choice (not that there's any chance of it coming into play). That was a tougher decision: other than campaiging on Brexit the Lib Dems haven't been particularly inspiring in this race, and it was a bit of a toss-up with the Greens for me. But in an effort to make an informed choice I looked through Paterson's manifesto and noticed he makes a point of opposing HS2, which is an utterly disastrous attitude for a would-be ma

Exciting times as the Labour Party visited the Tomsk household this evening on behalf of their general election candidate J---- S----. Alas the canvassing did not extend to Andy Burnham and therefore I will not be reporting details of our conversation. No further mayoral election literature has been received, so I guess it's decision time...

The first Libdemalanche since 2015 arrives, but sadly without any mention of the Mayoral election. In line with this blog's strict one-election policy I will present their literature without comment, and with the identities of candidates not standing for mayor obscured. Update 2/5/2017: It seems Labour are so confident of winning the mayoral race that they too are skipping ahead to the general election. Naturally their effort must be appropriately redacted:

With barely more than a week to go before election day the mayoral race has reached fever pitch, with upwards of one leaflet delivered already this week. And it's the Lib Dems again: South Manchester's Focus is clearly turning towards the general election, alongside John Leech's online announcement that he will run again in Withington . But there's still space to mention Jane Brophy at the bottom of the page, complete with Leech's endorsement. Focus makes a big claim that it's the Lib Dems or Labour to win on May 4th, and I have to admit I don't actually have any instinct about who will end up in the top two alongside Burnham. As far as I'm aware there have been no polls to help out on this point. The most straightforward estimate I can think of is a simple sum of all the votes in the 2015 general election across the 27 GM constituencies, which gives you the following totals: Labour: 551,119 Conservative: 315,537 UKIP: 192,470 Lib Dem: 85,1

Mrs Tomsk directs me to this slick ad from the pride of Trafford: Is he insinuating that Big Andy's not a Manc? Even after the exclusive interview with the Burnham for Mayor gazette put the record straight?

So it seems we can't even have a nice relaxed provincial vote without Westminster demanding to be the centre of attention. Poor show! Still, this blog will stay within its remit right up until the 4th May, if only because an election which the Tories surely can't win is so much more pleasant than the feeling of impending doom coming from the other one. The official candidate information arrived through our letterbox today ( it's also available online , in case you're wondering why my scanning skills have suddenly improved). Eight people are standing as follows: The first thing that jumps out of this list is that Withington's own Mysterious Independent is standing again! And not only that, he's opted to remain Mysterious by not submitting an official Election Address. Fair play to him. He's joined by a second Mysterious Independent, Mohammed Aslam, because of course Salford has to have its own Mysterious Independent. UKIP's Shneur Odze is the

It's certainly been a slow start to the election spamming this time round, almost as if the result is a foregone conclusion. But never fear: Big Andy has ridden into town. Points are immediately deducted for posting a leaflet that is much too large to be easily scanned. On the other hand, an equal number of points are awarded for sneaking Tony Wilson quotes into the text. Inside, there are detailed assurances that Burnham is not a Scouser (read and learn, national political correspondents), a soup ç on of appealing policies and a healthy amount of London-bashing. If there's one skill the mayor of GM must have, it's whining about Westminster until they cough up more cash. And of course it all helps dissociate him from his long time spent in the dreaded South. Overall the focus could hardly be more different to Jane Brophy: only a single passing mention of the referendum with the emphasis very much on local issues and Burnham's own high level of politica

OK, so a while back I might have said that I would definitely absolutely not post any more political literature on to this site, but we all know pledges are made to be broken. How could I resist the lure of the first ever Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Combined Authorities! Supplementary Vote! Brexit Culture Wars! It's got it all. Welcome back first of all to the fiercely independent South Manchester News, which chooses to splash on Corbyn's inept opposition to the Brexit process : Sadly the News was unable to find sufficient space to mention that our local Labour MP voted against triggering Article 50 , but to be fair if I was the editor I'd play up the Corbyn angle for all it was worth as well. Along with the SMN came the first piece of mayoral campaign literature we've received, for the Lib Dem candidate Jane Brophy. She is a Trafford councillor whose name is already familiar to me as the runner up in the safe Tory seat of Altrincham & Sale West i

Yes really. But don't worry, this blog has not renounced its political values. Let me explain... It's only been a few months since the EU referendum, but already it's clear that it has catalysed a fundamental realignment of English politics (just as Scotland was realigned by the independence referendum). First consider how voters of different parties divided on referendum day: (Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls ) One thing that leaps out immediately from this breakdown is that the major reason for Leave's victory was David Cameron's failure to bring his own voters with him. Labour voters on the other hand broke for Remain in much the same proportion as the resolutely pro-EU SNP, belying the idea that Corbyn's half-hearted campaigning was to blame for the result. The figures for the smaller parties were no surprise, although with the notable exception of UKIP there were substantial minorities opposed to the party line in each case. Now compare with a YouGov

These are tough times to be a supporter of the European Union. For decades the EU and its predecessors were rightly held up as a guardian of peace and prosperity of Europe. Then came the global financial crisis, and the Euro currency, the totemic symbol of European integration, became a "machine from hell" (in the words of one German official), ripping apart the fabric of Europe that the EU had previously done so much to stitch together. The Eurozone crisis remains unresolved to this day, stuck between the very reasonable desire of creditor countries not to risk their own finances in bailing out the debtor countries, and the very reasonable desire of debtor countries not to have their people ground into the dust by the lunatic austerity regimes imposed by the creditors. Why then should we stay in an institution that has pursued such a reckless experiment? For starters, obviously, we are not in the Eurozone and its tribulations will affect us no more or less if we vote

Before Corbyn was elected I noted that the results of the Scottish election would be a fascinating natural test of his leadership and some assumptions often made about the Scottish electorate, namely: 1. Scotland is more left-wing than the rest of the UK (look how they don't vote for Tories!) 2. Labour is losing support because it isn't left wing enough (unlike those lovable lefty nationalists) The alternative hypothesis - that since the referendum Scottish voting preferences have been determined mainly by attitude towards independence - was fiercely disputed by some people, predominantly ex-Labour voters north of the border, safe in the knowledge that there was no easy way of determining which explanation was correct. With Corbyn at the helm, however, there is no longer any ambiguity. Labour could hardly have chosen a more left-wing leader, and this year Scottish Labour ran on an overtly more left-wing platform than the SNP. For their pains they have been reduced to t

On 7th September last year, YouGov published a poll putting Yes in the lead in the Scottish independence referendum, and so kicked off a year of political wackiness that will almost certainly end in Jeremy Corbyn being elected Labour leader this 12th September. Hands up who predicted that? While the eventual referendum result went the other way, the poll was enough to provoke the panicked "vow", followed by the notorious tone-deaf Cameron speech in the wake of victory that did so much to cement the SNP's support. Then Labour wipeout in Scotland and a Tory majority, each a bigger surprise than the last. We should have guessed that Labour's leadership election would not be the dispiriting snoozefest it initially promised to be. In the wake of Miliband's defeat, all 3 mainstream candidates vied to cosy up as much as possible to business, declare their undying love of "aspiration", and drop as many leftish policies as they could get awa

Just when you thought it was safe to check the mail... Yes, the Lib Dems are back in the game! And there's a proper old-fashioned dodgy bar chart on the back to prove it: I'm impressed that Leech and co are still up for a fight, but the chances of them overturning Labour here are  zero for as long as Labour remain in opposition. I do think the Lib Dems will recover, particularly if Tim Farron leads them back to a Kennedy-style position on the political spectrum, but their recovery won't start here. So this will definitely absolutely be the last piece of political literature I post up. PS: Slightly embarrassed that Leech has got back in touch before I got round to writing my very important reflections on being a stay-at-home Dad. I blame the pressure of no longer being a stay-at-home Dad.

Withington was a very comfortable win for Jeff Smith: Labour: 54% Lib Dem: 24% Conservative: 10% Green: 8% UKIP: 4% Mysterious Independent: 0.1% The outcome was remarkably close to Ashcroft's poll from almost a year ago. If that was a true snapshot then the Lib Dems' impressive campaign was worth all of 2% extra on their vote. It appears their famous incumbency bonus vanished this time, in line with the many other Lib Dem losses around the country. The Predict-o-Matic 5000 clearly requires some adjustment. The local results are also out, more or less mirroring the parliamentary vote, although locally the Greens were almost level with the Lib Dems (this is actually an improvement in the Lib Dem position from last year). So with a Labour majority of almost 15,000, it's fair to say we no longer live in a marginal. The only question left is where to move to in time for 2020?

Lest we forget that it's polling day today, the Lib Dems got up early to remind us: The scan cannot adequately convey the sheer size and weight of this greeting. It was impossible to see the hallway beneath it. If the election were decided purely on last day polling reminder card area, the Lib Dems would be odds on for a landslide. The Labour effort looked a bit feeble in comparison: Still, the same quality card stock. The boat is being pushed out by both teams. And Labour even came to my door to ask how I'd voted. So what was the result of all these months of persuasion? I went for Jeff Smith. John Leech was a good MP with a great voting record and I wouldn't be unhappy if he were returned to parliament, but I was put off by his attacks on Labour's economic record and plans. Ultimately I voted for those plans. In the local elections I voted Lib Dem, as a kind of oblique protest against first past the post . It is unhealthy for all of Manchester&#

Good old South Manchester News has hit the printing presses again just in time for the election. Well, it's sympathies are less obvious than the national newspapers I suppose. The Leech campaign is really not doing any favours with me by attacking Labour's entirely sensible if not timid spending plans as "reckless". But never fear, because the man himself has sent us a handwritten note in a final plea for our votes: Having noted the "P.S."s at the bottom of all his letters, I'm not sure Leech has got the hang of them. They always reiterate what he's already written, when they should say something in passing like: P.S. I've heard there's free ice cream at the polling station today or P.S. Would you stop your dog barking at our canvassers? Labour go for a more conventional leaflet: Nothing new to report here. I'm running out of things to say about these leaflets, so just as well it's polling day tomorrow

Hmm. An anonymous brown envelope arrives containing all kinds of terrible revelations about Labour. Who could it be from? I'm guessing it's not from Labour... I see it's very positive about the Lib Dems' record in government on the back. Could this be a clue as to the senders? Ah yes! They admit all in the very small print at the bottom. I should have guessed from the paper . Quite why they think this will convince me to vote Lib Dem is beyond me. At least the previous Ferrero Rocher letter was upfront about being from the John Leech campaign. This one is a new low, not only repeating the same old twaddle about Labour causing the financial crisis, but also heavily implying without openly stating that Labour plan to cut more than the Lib Dems in the next parliament, when of course the opposite is true. Still, if the Lib Dems want to spend good money making it less likely I'll vote Lib Dem, that's their call.

Labour continue to step up their leaflet game, sending me a personal communication addressed personally to me in person, a variation on the one received by Mrs Tomsk a while back: In addition they've sent me my very own personalised polling day information card: I like the reminder to put an X next to Labour. Also, remember to put some shoes on before leaving the house. Unfortunately for Labour, the Lib Dems have gone one better again by sending a canvasser to Tomsk79 HQ at last! I learnt an interesting piece of information: that John Leech had not voted for the coalition in the first place. Naturally being canvassed affects the delicate calculus at the heart of the Predict-o-Matic 5000 . Its revised and final prediction is therefore as follows: (beep beep boop boop boop etc.) Con: 8% Lab: 45% LD: 37% UKIP: 3% Green: 7% Mysterious independent: 1% (nb: result adds up to 101% in light of the model's continued awesomeness)

Finally in our round-up (as I've yet to receive anything from the Mysterious Independent), the Green Party. Again it comes in compact A5 format, no doubt because more eco-friendly. It is of course printed on FSC-approved paper. No-one does hopey/changey quite like the Greens. Bannister's photo is curiously back-lit, like an angelic character from a Sofia Coppola film, leading us to a Green utopia with a list of the promises you wish Labour would make if only they didn't have to worry about actually winning an election. On the reverse we learn Bannister is another proud graduate of the University of Manchester, only this time writing with impeccable English. I'd expect no less from someone who studied the king of subjects. Surprisingly even on the back there is no mention of the environment at all. I suppose this is what they mean by "politics for real people". As a Real Person who occasionally attempts to get to Sheffield using a car, I curse the