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Coalition maths

According to Andrew Rawnsley , a hung parliament is quite a plausible outcome of the 2015 election. But how likely is it really compared to the 2010 election? In 2010, a number of factors made a hung parliament a very likely outcome. The Conservatives were in the ascendant, but due to the geographical spread of their voters they required a larger poll lead than Labour in order to secure a majority. Using the Electoral Calculus model we can estimate the leads Labour and the Conservatives would have required to get a majority: Labour Conservative Conservative lead Outcome 28 39 +11 Con majority 6 29 38 +9 Hung - Con short 11 30 37 +7 Hung - Con short 23 31 36 +5 Hung - Con short 40 32 35 +3 Hung - Lab short 37 33 34 +1 Hung - Lab short 24 34 33 -1 Hung - Lab short 15 35 32 -3 Lab majority 6 In the end, the Conservative lead was seven points and so they had to go into coalition with the Lib Dems. The Tories have since attempt