Tomsk79

  The 10 pledges made by Keir Starmer on his way to victory in the Labour leadership election planted his campaign firmly in the ground marked by the 2017 general election manifesto that almost put Corbyn's Labour into government. But six months on, questions are increasingly being asked about whether he intends to stand by them. On both the left and right wings of the party and among some commentators there is a growing belief that the pledges were nothing but a ruse to lure former Corbyn supporters away from his chosen successor Rebecca Long-Bailey, and having served their purpose are now in the process of being quietly dropped to make way for a return to Blair-style centrism.  But is this belief actually true? Approaching this question as a very forensic lawyer might do, let's first consider the case for the prosecution. The belief on the Labour right and among centrist pundits that Starmer is their man is well summed up by Andrew Rawnsley's  recent column on his confere

The drumbeat of Centrism is getting louder, if you can imagine such a thing. Current Lib Dem leader Vince Cable embarrassingly missed a crucial Brexit vote in order, it is claimed, to discuss a possible new party with unknown others. Leading Tory "rebel" Dominic Grieve has put it on the record that he will leave his party if Boris Johnson becomes leader. And Chuka Umunna has warned that the Labour party is at breaking point under Corbyn's leadership in comments widely interpreted as a signal that he is on the way out. It's prudent to take some of these public remarks with a pinch of salt of course. After all, it's the same Dominic Grieve who was conned by Tory whips into voting against his own Brexit amendment . And it's the same Chuka Umunna who said in the wake of the referendum that we should be prepared to sacrifice single market membership in order to curtail freedom of movement rights , before deciding that fighting for the single market was a be

Some Remainers are upset at Jeremy Corbyn again, after he apparently ruled out staying in the single market after Brexit . Many have taken umbrage at his claim that single market membership is intrinsically linked to EU membership, pointing to the EFTA countries Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Iceland as counterexamples. But Corbyn is technically correct to say that the single market is not a club that can be joined. You can of course loosely say that the likes of Norway and Switzerland are "in" the single market, but their high level of access comes through the EEA agreement and bilateral treaties respectively, which include exceptions such as agriculture and fisheries. It's not a binary distinction by any means. Rather than argue semantics, a more fruitful exercise is to analyse what Labour would actually hope to achieve if they were in charge of Brexit negotiations. As with the Conservatives , it is clear enough if you take at face value what they say t

In the phase 1 Brexit agreement , the UK has made a commitment to keep the Irish border open in all circumstances: The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement. Many commentators have interpreted this to mean that the only destination now possible in phase 2 is a so-called soft Brexit, where to all intents and pur

As someone who was denied the chance to vote in a parliamentary election until I was 21, it might not surprise you that I have every sympathy with 16 and 17 year olds who were similarly denied a chance to vote this year. It was a shame, then, that Jim McMahon's bill to reduce the voting age was not brought to a vote on Friday, and dismaying to discover that there are still plenty of opponents of votes at 16 out there, throwing out the usual tired arguments against change. Most of these arguments tend towards abstract musings on the nature of adulthood, aka "why should we trust 16 year olds with a vote if we don't trust them with a pint?". Which itself raises the question of exactly what kind of damage they are expecting 16 year olds to do with their ballot paper. Give themselves a papercut? The intention of restricting things like alcohol, gambling, smoking, tanning salons, etc. to 18 is clearly to protect children from potentially harming themselves or others

It's been heartening to see that the  softening of Labour's Brexit position over the summer has not led to a decline in its polling figures, and may even be driving them up a little. Labour's change was apparently motivated at least in part by the fear that a new "centrist" party would emerge that would hurt them more than the Tories . Certainly, there's been much talk recently of such a party, despite or perhaps because of the lacklustre performance of the existing centrist party, the Lib Dems, in the snap election. The belief that a new centrist party would sweep all before it is based on the idea that if Labour moves left while the Tories move right, a great yawning gap of homeless voters will appear in the middle. Assuming voters are normally distributed across the political spectrum, the picture looks something like this: Which is fine as far as it goes, but the label "centrist" bugs me, both as a tag for the potential new party and in i

So it turns out the method of counting window posters is scientific, with Jeff Smith crushing all before him: Party Votes % +/- % Jeff Smith Labour 38,424 71.7 +18.0 John Leech Liberal Democrat 8,549 15.9 -8.0 Sarah Heald Conservative 5,530 10.3 +0.6 Laura Bannister Green 865 1.6 -6.5 Sally Carr Women’s Equality 234 0.4 Far from being a marginal, Withington must now be one of the safest seats in the country. The Lib Dems remain in second place but will surely now turn their attention to more winnable targets. The Greens' collapse mirrors their poor performance nationally, while the Tories have benefitted only marginally from the disappearance of UKIP. What a turnaround we've seen since the start of the campaign, and even the local elections, when it seemed like Big Andy would be the only Labour politi