The Manchester Withington Predict-o-Matic 5000
The 2015 election has been notable for the many new models attempting to predict the result, mostly created by academics trying to avoid doing any proper work. In that spirit we at Tomsk79 have created our own model for predicting the result of the Manchester Withington constituency, which is detailed in full here. The starting point for my model is the constituency poll carried out in June 2014 by Lord Ashcroft (blessed be his name). This poll suggests a decisive swing from the Lib Dems to Labour since the election: The next stage is to correct the Ashcroft poll by movements in the national polls since June 2014. For this we use the BBC Poll of Polls , which reports changes as follows: Con: 31 to 34 (+3) Lab: 34 to 33 (-1) LD: 10 to 9 (-1) UKIP: 15 to 13 (-2) Green: 5 to 5 (0) We assume that the national changes apply uniformly to the Withington constituency. Next, we apply a sub-seat correction using local election results from Withington wards. By analysing